A few things we are thinking about to start the week. * AI as the biggest capex risk episode in history * China is within the AI margin of error * New York
To get caught up, here are a few recent interviews with me on various of my favorite topics. If I've missed any, let me know.
💡I've been using Meta's Muse for a week or two. While flawed and clearly designed by engineers fed a forced diet of Meta design quirks—all
Fucking horse is out the barn door, right? Let's try not to make me look stupid twice. And when you list the cases, put a little dot next
While agentic AI tools like Muse have caused investors to reconsider so-called "inertia" companies—those where excess profits come from consumers not switching—a more important category
A new paid-subscriber dashboard tracks Treasury market stress, rate pressure, and volatility—and shows where debt market stress is concentrated.
Four charts worth thinking about: 1. The sharp rise of open-weight models as corporations shift away from the frontier 2. How private equity became the new bad guy in
Some thesis-centric weekend reading, with our take on each, tying them to the house view. Contents 1. CoreWeave goes to junk 2. Climate inflation is not rate-sensitive 3.
As long-time capital markets people, we think in terms of "house views": What we believe, and what thus drives our interpretation of events. These can and do
What Happened The NYT's Ezra Klein interviewed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang this week, and it was messy. The two repeatedly talked past one another, as Klein, looking for
💡I was traveling most of last week in Europe, so am finally getting caught up. Will have some notes on my travels and conversations later this week. What Happened Meta&
What Happened A new U.S. Census Bureau study finds an unprecedented worsening in outcomes since ChatGPT's launch for graduates from the U.S. college majors most exposed
