What Happened A recent analysis claims that AI model progress has sharply re-accelerated. Its evidence is the chart below, "showing" Epoch’s Capabilities Index rising from 8.
What Happened The most visible response to soaring memory prices—now perhaps more than 75% of a server bill of materials (according to Google)—is higher semiconductor capex: new fabs,
What's Ahead 1. "Big Tech" Interview 2. The Price of Intelligence 3. Goldman Does a 5x on Its Humanoid Robot Forecast 4. Models Easily Flip Response
What Happened Analysts at sell-side firms have highlighted an apparent puzzle in the most recent economic data: profits are soaring, but hiring is not. Pre-tax corporate profits have
What Happened AI has been almost absent from the just-completed annual Kansas City Federal Reserve event in Jackson Hole. Searching the programs over the last four years for AI,
What Happened Will anyone ultimately use AI as intensively as software developers do? That matters because coding is already a huge share of AI usage and revenue: roughly 80% of
1. AI has a grassroots problem. Silicon Valley has spent years getting good at talking "upward" to investors and policymakers. But, with AI, tech is becoming intensely local.
A quick heads-up that you can find a few new interviews with me this week, including in the current Grant's (subscribers only) on data center debt, as
There are three parts to this note about the AI-related memory supercycle. It starts with what happened/changed this week, moves on to what it means, and then analyzes
What Happened Three things are changing at once in the AI data center outlook (ignoring the quickly changing data center engineering dynamics and its implications for memory, which I will
Two rules have shaped U,S. electricity planning for a century. 1. Power flows in a known direction. 2. When something fails, it is the supply side that fails. AI
