Paul Kedrosky

Ezra Klein Appearance: Is There an AI Bubble?

I was a guest earlier this week on the Ezra Klein show, discussing the current AI moment. As ever, I was focused on the underlying financial and funding architecture, the

Five Things from Goldman's New China AI Report

Roundup: Capital, Confidence, and Contagion

The following Friday roundup describes an increasingly narrow system: capital and confidence are concentrating around AI and its infrastructure, while strain builds ... everywhere, from public markets, to sovereign debt, to

The Glacial Lake Outburst Problem in AI IPOs

What Happened The IPO market has abruptly slowed, with a growing list of companies postponing or abandoning planned public offerings. Here is just a partial list: Holtec, Oura, SB Energy,

Roundup: Capex, Trade, Risk, Climate, Call Centers, Concentration, etc.

What's ahead: 1. AI Is Carrying the S&P 500 2. Tech Imports Surge With the AI Buildout 3. Call-Center Employment Is Shrinking Fast 4. Pacific

Carrying Water for Frontier Model Companies

What Happened AI spending is becoming irritatingly difficult for businesses to forecast, the WSJ argues, because the task completion cost can vary widely across models and even across repeated runs

Sunday Roundup: Biggest Risk Episode Ever, China's AI Inroads, NYC vs AI, Robots and Babies, Cars, etc.

A few things we are thinking about to start the week. * AI as the biggest capex risk episode in history * China is within the AI margin of error * New York

Recent Interviews Roundup

To get caught up, here are a few recent interviews with me on various of my favorite topics. If I've missed any, let me know.

Musing About Meta's Muse

💡I've been using Meta's Muse for a week or two. While flawed and clearly designed by engineers fed a forced diet of Meta design quirks—all

Deputy Likes Dots: Crowding and the AI IPO Traffic Jam

Fucking horse is out the barn door, right? Let's try not to make me look stupid twice. And when you list the cases, put a little dot next

Switching Costs, AI, and the Complexity Basket

While agentic AI tools like Muse have caused investors to reconsider so-called "inertia" companies—those where excess profits come from consumers not switching—a more important category