Independent research, tools, and advisory work for investors, executives, and policy teams navigating technology, markets, energy, and systemic change.
Advisors to family offices, sovereigns, hedge funds, and some of the world's largest institutional investors.
Subscriber tools
Subscriber tools turn broad uncertainty into visible ranges, sensitivities, and second-order effects.
Scan thousands of charts across markets, technology, energy, and macro regimes.
Model how oil price shocks can propagate through macro and financial systems.
Explore how size, timing, allocation, and liquidity shape market absorption.
Short observations
Recent research
Four AI & economics takeaway figures from yesterday's midterm political festivities in the U.S. 1. Data center antipathy ranks among the top four areas of bipartisan agreement
Nine things that have caught our attention this week. 1. China's Beats the AI Bust Rush 2. Productivity for Some 3. Attack vs. Defence 4. Who Are You,
Anthropic’s release earlier this week of an S-1 for its planned IPO has become a Rorschach test—bulls and bears project onto it their hopes, dreams, and fears—
5.2% of all critical software vulnerabilities ever reported were disclosed just this month
A new interactive tool for testing the revenue required to justify AI infrastructure spending.
Various thesis-bending topics that we have been thinking about; the most important one first. And thanks for the overwhelming number of notes on last week's appearance on
I was a guest earlier this week on the Ezra Klein show, discussing the current AI moment. As ever, I was focused on the underlying financial and funding architecture, the
The following Friday roundup describes an increasingly narrow system: capital and confidence are concentrating around AI and its infrastructure, while strain builds ... everywhere, from public markets, to sovereign debt, to
What Happened The IPO market has abruptly slowed, with a growing list of companies postponing or abandoning planned public offerings. Here is just a partial list: Holtec, Oura, SB Energy,
What's ahead: 1. AI Is Carrying the S&P 500 2. Tech Imports Surge With the AI Buildout 3. Call-Center Employment Is Shrinking Fast 4. Pacific
What Happened AI spending is becoming irritatingly difficult for businesses to forecast, the WSJ argues, because the task completion cost can vary widely across models and even across repeated runs
A few things we are thinking about to start the week. * AI as the biggest capex risk episode in history * China is within the AI margin of error * New York
To get caught up, here are a few recent interviews with me on various of my favorite topics. If I've missed any, let me know.
💡I've been using Meta's Muse for a week or two. While flawed and clearly designed by engineers fed a forced diet of Meta design quirks—all
Briefings & advisory
