The Future of The Future
The future is going to be so much worse than you think, even if you think it will be worse than you thought. Why did I deepfake myself? To see
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On What It Feels Like to Be Wrong
"[T]he whole reason it’s possible to be wrong is that, while it is happening, you are oblivious to it. ... [I]t does feel like something to be
Is Job Transitioning Getting Harder? Maybe
I’m trying to decided if I buy this data, which appeals to me given my priors about growing structural rigidities in employment markets. Retraining is harder, given the large
Weekend Readings: p(doom), Al Capone, Regime Change, College, etc.
On p(doom), college requirements, LLM ecologies, and Al Capone
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Three Things: Fractal Violence, the Microsoft of AI, and Galloping Gertie
Things to think about: The fractal nature of violence. Why there will be no "next Microsoft" of AI/. Galloping Gertie and the recent North American heat wave
5 min read
Weekend Readings: Air, Goldman, CUDA, Winter, and Satoshi's Pizza Emails
I'm in the middle of a few longer posts, so before those come out, some things I'm reading and thinking about: 1. How Fresh Air Became
3 min read
Prices and Wages
People often view wages and prices as separate when, in reality, rising wages can lead to increased prices as businesses seek to recover higher labor costs.
1 min read
All You Need ... is All You Need
The most important paper of all time came out in June of 1951. It changed science. And science is about to change again.
12 min read
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California Weather Imagery
Lots of things coming, one tomorrow, but a quick shot of some striking weather imagery: the water vapor loop of an incoming storm off the Pacific. It will hit the
1 min read
The Lithium Boom, Retractions, Real Estate, and Skateboarding
What the rise of skateboarding, the lithium boom, a spate of research paper retractions, and Canadian real estate tell us about the world.
7 min read
Monday Roundup: Regional Conflicts, LLMs, Premier League, Snow Deficit, etc.
On airports, snow droughts, the rise in global conflicts, and more.
6 min read
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Risks, Immortal Finns, and Congressional Stability
In this post I examine the actuarial structures of various groups—from Finnish 8-year-olds to Congress—and the implications. It includes an interactive tool I designed to let people play with risk models.
6 min read
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