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Rough Notes: Jan 22, 2026

Recent Rough Notes from the site on topics and ideas

Here are recent rough notes from the site:

1.
AI does not increase developer productivity

New paper studying AI-related productivty gains among software developers showers cold water on the idea that Claude/Cursor/Codex et al., ring in a regime change in developer productivity.

Artrificial Intelligence in the Firm https://fion.ac/jellyfish.pdf

Jan 22 · Permalink →
2.
Coding Tools Do Not Replace Companies

Various smart folks making naive arguments about how the emergence of coding tools like Claude puts paid to orthodox software companies, and explains recent selling of the group.

This is, at best, naive. People will always pay to rent strangers to write and maintain code. That it's easier to write code in corner cases solves a different problem, even if an important one.