Recent Interviews Roundup
A quick heads-up that you can find a few new interviews with me this week, including in the current Grant's (subscribers only) on data center debt, as
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China's Semiconductor Capex Adds are Massive
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Memory Scarcity Is Creating Its Own Exit, Part II: CXMT, YMTC, etc.
There are three parts to this note about the AI-related memory supercycle. It starts with what happened/changed this week, moves on to what it means, and then analyzes
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The Data Center Buildout Just Hit an Inflection
What Happened Three things are changing at once in the AI data center outlook (ignoring the quickly changing data center engineering dynamics and its implications for memory, which I will
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Data Centers are Making the U.S. Grid Run Backwards
Two rules have shaped U,S. electricity planning for a century. 1. Power flows in a known direction. 2. When something fails, it is the supply side that fails. AI
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The Memory Boom Is Already Creating Its Own Bust
If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. - Herb Stein, Senior Fellow. American Enterprise Institute What Happened * TrendForce says memory's share of CSP (cloud service provider) spending
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Six Things: Hedge Fund Crowding, Insurance, Anomie, Iran, and Hyperdeflation
Here are six chart-driven ideas to think about this weekend: 1. New data shows AI has made hedge funds the most crowded in history 2. Less-educated young men
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Yuval Noah Harari On AI, Capital Markets, and Risks
After the madmess of Musk a few weeks on The Economist's showcase podcast, thinker/writer Yuval Noah Harari is on for the hour this week. The following is
2 min read
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Where AI Debt Is Going, and Why It Matters, Insurance Edition
What Happened * Private equity has increasingly taken control of life insurers, turning insurance premiums into permanent capital for private credit. * The asset manager can originate loans, collect fees and direct
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"Vibe Chipping", Vanishing Moats, & Future Semiconductors
What Happened * Etched, an AI-chip startup founded by three 24-year-old Harvard dropouts, has begun shipping its first chips. * The company has more than $1 billion in orders
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Nvidia ♥️ SEC Securitization Rules
💡This is slightly wonky, but consequential. I wrote about it previously for institutional clients when the SEC released the "no action" letter, but with Nvidia taking advantage of
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Monday Signal: The Memory Supercycle and How It Ends
Thinking about the current memory supercycle, and how it ends. Three perspectives ahead; 1. Memory is building quickly toward its next glut 2. HBM contracts are moving the cycle onto
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