💡We have launched a subscribers-only p(doom) calculator to model both the financial and existential risks ahead. What Happened AI risk has had a busy week. Anthropic disclosed four
What's ahead: * The Balance Sheet Is Catching Up * The Risk Has to Land Somewhere * The Serial Fraction Wins * Capability Can Become Correlation * China Is Building Around the Chokepoints
What Happened OpenAI released its GPT-6 Astra model this week, calling it its most capable model yet. On benchmarks, it has new highs across computer use, coding, science, cybersecurity,
What Happened A recent analysis claims that AI model progress has sharply re-accelerated. Its evidence is the chart below, "showing" Epoch’s Capabilities Index rising from 8.
What Happened The most visible response to soaring memory prices—now perhaps more than 75% of a server bill of materials (according to Google)—is higher semiconductor capex: new fabs,
What's Ahead 1. "Big Tech" Interview 2. The Price of Intelligence 3. Goldman Does a 5x on Its Humanoid Robot Forecast 4. Models Easily Flip Response
What Happened Analysts at sell-side firms have highlighted an apparent puzzle in the most recent economic data: profits are soaring, but hiring is not. Pre-tax corporate profits have
What Happened AI has been almost absent from the just-completed annual Kansas City Federal Reserve event in Jackson Hole. Searching the programs over the last four years for AI,
What Happened Will anyone ultimately use AI as intensively as software developers do? That matters because coding is already a huge share of AI usage and revenue: roughly 80% of
1. AI has a grassroots problem. Silicon Valley has spent years getting good at talking "upward" to investors and policymakers. But, with AI, tech is becoming intensely local.
A quick heads-up that you can find a few new interviews with me this week, including in the current Grant's (subscribers only) on data center debt, as
