Four charts worth thinking about: 1. The sharp rise of open-weight models as corporations shift away from the frontier 2. How private equity became the new bad guy in
Some thesis-centric weekend reading, with our take on each, tying them to the house view. Contents 1. CoreWeave goes to junk 2. Climate inflation is not rate-sensitive 3.
As long-time capital markets people, we think in terms of "house views": What we believe, and what thus drives our interpretation of events. These can and do
What Happened The NYT's Ezra Klein interviewed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang this week, and it was messy. The two repeatedly talked past one another, as Klein, looking for
💡I was traveling most of last week in Europe, so am finally getting caught up. Will have some notes on my travels and conversations later this week. What Happened Meta&
What Happened A new U.S. Census Bureau study finds an unprecedented worsening in outcomes since ChatGPT's launch for graduates from the U.S. college majors most exposed
What Happened The 10-year Treasury crossed 5% this week, its highest level since 2023. This creates an economic stress test, with consumers pulling money out of stocks, attracted by
What Happened After last week's outbreak of "Hey maybe unfettered AI advances will kill us all", and a subsequent industry coalescence around Anthropic head Amodei;'
What Happened This week frontier AI model maker Anthropic briefly posted a “Mega Account Executive, Meta” role paying as much as $450,000, then ... unposted it after Business Insider asked
💡We have launched a subscribers-only p(doom) calculator to model both the financial and existential risks ahead. What Happened AI risk has had a busy week. Anthropic disclosed four
What's ahead: * The Balance Sheet Is Catching Up * The Risk Has to Land Somewhere * The Serial Fraction Wins * Capability Can Become Correlation * China Is Building Around the Chokepoints
What Happened OpenAI released its GPT-6 Astra model this week, calling it its most capable model yet. On benchmarks, it has new highs across computer use, coding, science, cybersecurity,
