Commoditization, Orchestration, and the New AI Stack
AI value is moving up the stack, stranding capital
7 min read
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Paul Kedrosky
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Rough Notes, Feb 24, 2026: Tail Risks, Capex, Backlog Issues, Nvidia earnings, etc.
A digest of recent Rough Notes
3 min read
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Rough Notes II, Feb 23, 2026: Jobs, Energy, SaaS, etc.
A digest of recent Rough Notes
3 min read
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Rough Notes; Feb 23, 2026: Hateful Eight AI, Capex, AI Unemployment, etc.
A digest of recent Rough Notes
3 min read
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Rough Notes, Feb 22, 2026: Agents, Clawdbot Collapse, Microsoft as Exxon, etc.
A digest of recent Rough Notes from the site
4 min read
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Rough Notes, Feb 21, 2026: China AI Tea, Cybercrime, Cat Bonds, etc.
A digest of recent Rough Notes from the site
3 min read
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Rough Notes, Feb 20, 2026: AI Capex in Q4 GDP, Anthropic Revenues, Agentic Domains, etc.
A digest of recent Rough Notes
3 min read
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Rough Notes, Feb 17, 2026: Japan, Warner, Electricity Prices, Data Centers, etc.
A digest of recent Rough Notes
3 min read
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Rough Notes, Feb 16, 2026: China, Amodei, Unrest, etc.
A digest of recent Rough Notes
3 min read
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OpenAI Memo on Chinese Distillation of AI Models
1 min read
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Rough Notes: Feb 12, 2026
A digest of recent Rough Notes
4 min read
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Exponentials and AI: Debt, Fragilities, and an R&D Cascade
New research argues that at current rates of progress there will be more than 99% automation of AI research and development by 2032
2 min read
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