Paul Kedrosky

Silicon Valley Was Born a Defense Industry, and is Becoming One Again

The valley’s long civilian interlude may be ending as AI reconnects it to its military origins

AI and the Rise of the Ghost Economy

On credit convexity and cognition abundance

Reinsurance, Risk, and AI Insurabiltiy

AI and climate change increasing insurer cross-line correlation

Rough Notes, 3/11/26: Western Heat Wave, Margin Debt, Robots, AI Benchmarks, etc.

Recent notes on Western Heat Wave, Margin Debt, AI Benchmarks, etc.

New Premium Feature: Oil Price Shock Simulator

Simulate the effect of oil price shocks on the economy

Rough Notes, Mar 6, 2026: AI IPO Sector, Re-Rating Tech, Hateful Eight, etc.

Rough Notes II, Mar 5, 2026: Productivity, Mag 7 Survival, AI-Exposed Jobs, etc.

A digest of recent Rough Notes

New Premium Feature: Chartbook Live

Easy access to previous charts and graphics