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Correction:
There was a typo in the original emailed version of this post where I called Gemini a Microsoft model. It isn't, obviously. It's Google's.
There was a typo in the original emailed version of this post where I called Gemini a Microsoft model. It isn't, obviously. It's Google's.
A few quick things worth thinking about on a busy Monday morning:
- GenAI adoptions changing S-curve
- LLM benchmark trends
- Chinese LLMs' growing share
Let's do this:
1. GenAI Adoption's Changing S-Curve
S&P has out a new report on GenAI adoption, and, while interesting, it doesn't entirely say what it thinks it says. (As a related aside, I increasingly find the expression "GenAI" as wearying and dated as I once did "high tech", so keep that in mind.)
Here is the main graph that caught my eye:
While the growth is dramatic, the history of technology adoption shows that these S-curves often change quickly after about 50% of the market has adopted. Future gains, while material, are generally slower, more expensive, and often come with higher churn.