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The Godfather and Oracle's Crap GPU Rental Returns

The potential for a gestalt flip as investors notice the obvious

The Godfather and Oracle's Crap GPU Rental Returns
Photo by İsmail Enes Ayhan / Unsplash
She threw it all away just to make me look ridiculous. And a man in my position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous. Now you get the hell out of here!
—Jack Woltz, The Godfather (1972)

A new piece on Oracle's weak GPU rental returns from The Information (based on internal Oracle documents) has people buzzing, even if it shouldn't.

But first, some of the key points:

  • Oracle's getting 14% gross margin from renting out Nvidia's Blackwell.
  • In the three months that ended in August, Oracle generated around $900 million from rentals of servers powered by Nvidia chips and recorded a gross profit of $125 million.
  • That is equal to 14 cents for every $1 of sales.
  • That’s worse than the gross margins of many nontech retail businesses.

There is no denying these are weak numbers, but they should not be a surprise. We already know that cap rates from hyperscaler data centers—with their long-term contracts, strong renter credit quality, etc.—are not much above¹ 30-year treasuries. This is a highly capital-intensive business with unimpressive margins.

¹ Data center REITs are commanding the second-highest enterprise values across asset classes, trailing only tower REITs, while boasting the lowest implied cap rates at 4.4%. (Source: CRE Daily)

The Gestalt Flip Ahead