OCTOBER 05, 2025—GENERAL EDITION
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HEADLINES:
Prabowo tells army to guard raw resources from foreign groups (Bloomberg) … We finally have free anti-robocall tools that work (NY Times) … Her stocks were quietly stolen from her I.R.A. (NY Times) … Labour markets stuck in a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ cycle (FT) … Indonesia revokes TikTok license suspension after data submitted (Bloomberg) … How polarised is Britain? (FT) … Indian IPO market set for record month with $5 billion in deals (Bloomberg) … He Drops Trump Jr.’s Name in Pursuit of Billion-Dollar Deals. It’s Getting Awkward. (WSJ) … Discount airlines changed flying. Now they’re in trouble. (NY Times) … How a Missile Strike Unlocked a Deal for Peace in Gaza (WSJ)
TWO GRAPHS:
Layoffs in the U.S. remain below pre-pandemic lows since mid-2020, stabilizing around 1%. This suggests sustained employment resilience post-COVID, contrasting the pandemic spike. Such low discharge rates indicate a strong labor market, crucial for economic recovery and workforce stability.
The hire rate dropped from over 4.0% in 2020 to around 3.2% in 2025, highlighting a significant decline. This matters for economic stability and workforce dynamics, indicating a potential slowdown in labor market recovery.
THE IDEAS:
Mentions: NVDA, META, UHAL, HLIT, TEVA
01. Geoeconomics reshaping global trade patterns
The increasing role of geopolitics in shaping economic policies is causing a realignment of global trade practices. Geopolitical partners are trading more with one another and less with rivals, impacting logistics, supply chains, and possibly the global economy within the next 24 months.
Related reading:
FreightWaves: McKinsey: Geopolitical partners trading more with one another, less with rivals
FT: Welcome to the new age of geoeconomics
FT: Strategic interdependence is rewiring the global economy
02. Industrial sectors see renewed momentum
Following a period of stagnation, industrial growth is resurging, driven by recovery in global markets and technological advancements. This trend suggests a positive outlook for companies in the industrial sector over the next year.
Related reading:
Oxford Economics: Industry Key Themes 2025: Industrial landscape at a critical juncture
CNBC: This industrial giant could be about to break out, charts show
03. AI adoption transforming consumer and business landscapes
Generative AI is rapidly being integrated across various industries, significantly altering consumer behavior and business operations. The ongoing adoption of AI presents significant opportunities and challenges, shaping the competitive landscape over the next two years.
Related reading:
Twitter: As generative #AI sweeps across industries and the #consumer landscape
Oxford Economics: New Tools, New Skills, No End in Sight: The Challenge of AI Adoption
04. Hospitality sector innovation driven by tech and consumer trends
The hospitality industry is rapidly evolving due to technological advances and shifting consumer preferences, setting the stage for new business models and enhanced customer experiences. This trend is expected to continue shaping the industry's growth over the next two years.
Related reading:
HospitalityNet: Top 10 Hospitality Trends: What Shaped 2024 and What To Expect in 2025
HospitalityNet: Where Brands Shape the Future of Living