Skip to content
2 min read newsletter

Has Corporate AI Adoption Stalled in Low Teens? Doubtful

Census data shows early AI gains fading: large-firm adoption slowing, small-firms plateauing, and overall usage well below capex-driven expectations.

Has Corporate AI Adoption Stalled in Low Teens? Doubtful
Photo by Igor Omilaev / Unsplash

The Gist

New Census Bureau data shows AI adoption in U.S. firms rose sharply from late 2023 through mid-2025, but the growth rate is allegedly now flattening across all firm sizes. Large companies allegedly lead, and smaller firms are supposedly close behind, yet absolute adoption levels are claimed to be low. While I remain skeptical about the capex buildout, this interpretation based on fraught Census Bureau data is largely indefensible.

Key Facts