The U.S. labor force participation rate has quietly returned to levels last seen in the 1970s (outside the recent pandemic). It increasingly seems to signal a structural shift in
A quick roundup of five things I'm thinking about and have been discussing with clients and others lately. 1/ Taiwan is now the world's fifth-largest
Chinese patents are mostly built on Chinese science rather than American science, according to a new working paper. Across every "critical technology area" shown, the U.S. share
I did a lengthy interview a little while back, and it is now out. Folks may find it a helpful restatement of some of my views on the current situation,
I have a short essay in the NY Times today on why Americans are such global outliers in their AI antipathy. Hating AI is, as I say in the piece,
China did to solar panels what everyone said couldn't happen to a complex manufactured good: it turned them into a commodity, drove prices down 90%, and eliminated the
Models are getting (slowly) better, which will make things (quickly) worse
centers' 1. AI data centers' share of GDP (not just GDP growth) is now material. 2. A new report buries the lede with respect to how the inference
Hyperscaler and data-center investment, negligible through 2022, is now tracking toward $1.5 trillion annually by 2030. At that level, it will surpass, in real terms, the residential construction
A new paper estimates that the iPhone launch accounts for between one-third and one-half of the decline in the U.S. fertility rate since 2007. If correct, it
A new Anthropic paper bangs the usual recursive AI self-improvement drum, while warning that someone—maybe, you know, increased—should slow AI developments, because ... AGI/ASI/paperclips, etc. Among
A quiet story in AI isn't that large models keep getting better, it's that small ones are catching up quickly. In 2022, reaching 60% on MMLU,
