In this post I examine the actuarial structures of various groups—from Finnish 8-year-olds to Congress—and the implications. It includes an interactive tool I designed to let people play with risk models.
When consensus predictions don't pan out, it is always worth noting. That is why it is so striking how little attention it is getting that we had the future of technology dead wrong.
Technology often has unintended consequences that reduce the benefit of the technology itself. I wrote about a variant of this in my posts about Stanley Jevons, but in this note we abstract up a little and talk about revenge effects in more general terms.
What happens when people decide an occupation is toast? This is an important question given what we see happening in many occupations that once looked appealing, and now, post large language models (LLMs), look less so.