Falling birth rates shrink the workforce and slow economic growth. This has been economic orthodoxy since Adam Smith. New research finds the (almost) opposite, however. Countries with larger baby busts
The U.S. labor force participation rate has quietly returned to levels last seen in the 1970s (outside the recent pandemic). It increasingly seems to signal a structural shift in
A quick roundup of five things I'm thinking about and have been discussing with clients and others lately. 1/ Taiwan is now the world's fifth-largest
Chinese patents are mostly built on Chinese science rather than American science, according to a new working paper. Across every "critical technology area" shown, the U.S. share
I did a lengthy interview a little while back, and it is now out. Folks may find it a helpful restatement of some of my views on the current situation,
I have a short essay in the NY Times today on why Americans are such global outliers in their AI antipathy. Hating AI is, as I say in the piece,
China did to solar panels what everyone said couldn't happen to a complex manufactured good: it turned them into a commodity, drove prices down 90%, and eliminated the
Models are getting (slowly) better, which will make things (quickly) worse
centers' 1. AI data centers' share of GDP (not just GDP growth) is now material. 2. A new report buries the lede with respect to how the inference
Hyperscaler and data-center investment, negligible through 2022, is now tracking toward $1.5 trillion annually by 2030. At that level, it will surpass, in real terms, the residential construction
A new paper estimates that the iPhone launch accounts for between one-third and one-half of the decline in the U.S. fertility rate since 2007. If correct, it
A new Anthropic paper bangs the usual recursive AI self-improvement drum, while warning that someone—maybe, you know, increased—should slow AI developments, because ... AGI/ASI/paperclips, etc. Among
