New paulkedrosky Service: Four Ideas
Introducing Four Ideas, a new way to engineer ideas
3 min read
Paul Kedrosky
Page 51 of 54
Kamala Harris, Prediction Markets, and the Limits to Arbitrage
Prediction markets are having a moment, especially in politics. Should we trust them?
11 min read
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As If, AGI
If enough people act is if LLMs are intelligent, then they are
2 min read
California's Reversing Atmospheric Rivers
In winter California is highly dependent on a few atmospheric river events. In summer these rivers reverse, and the reversing rivers are getting larger.
11 min read
Samuel Newman's Concordance, and How "Delve" Changed the World
How the word "delve" is channeling the past to talk to the present, and the future.
10 min read
Monetizing Loss Aversion for Fun and Profit
So-called "buffer" ETFs are having a moment, monetizing loss aversion.
3 min read
Rawdogging, Revenge Effects, and Technology
Air travel without phones, ear buds, movies, music, or anything else is newly a thing. It may also be an augury of a reversed revenge effect.
2 min read
A "Heat Dome" of Immigration
Faced with below-replacement birth rates and aging societies, developed economies are trying a range of experiments, like Canada's unprecedented and unpopular immigration policies.
2 min read
Americans are less mobile than ever
After long being the most mobile society on earth, new data shows Americans move less than ever. There are many consequences.
1 min read
LLMs as Organisms, Part 1: Old Man Shouts at Multinomial
In the first entries in a multi-part series I look at how LLMs are grown, not engineered, and the consequences. I use this insight to develop a new way of thinking about science and the nature of progress
3 min read
The UBI Thing
I hear this a lot, that we will need universal basic income (UBI) because of how many and how quickly jobs will disappear in a post-AI world, and how
1 min read
People's Understanding of Inflation
it is a constant mystery to me how people respond to price inflation, made worse in the current period. A new paper reminds me that while people's thinking