Kamala Harris, Prediction Markets, and the Limits to Arbitrage
Prediction markets are having a moment, especially in politics. Should we trust them?
Archives
California's Reversing Atmospheric Rivers
In winter California is highly dependent on a few atmospheric river events. In summer these rivers reverse, and the reversing rivers are getting larger.
Samuel Newman's Concordance, and How "Delve" Changed the World
How the word "delve" is channeling the past to talk to the present, and the future.
Monetizing Loss Aversion for Fun and Profit
So-called "buffer" ETFs are having a moment, monetizing loss aversion.
Rawdogging, Revenge Effects, and Technology
Air travel without phones, ear buds, movies, music, or anything else is newly a thing. It may also be an augury of a reversed revenge effect.
A "Heat Dome" of Immigration
Faced with below-replacement birth rates and aging societies, developed economies are trying a range of experiments, like Canada's unprecedented and unpopular immigration policies.
Americans are less mobile than ever
After long being the most mobile society on earth, new data shows Americans move less than ever. There are many consequences.