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# New Tool: Debt/Treasury Market Stress
- URL: https://paulkedrosky.com/new-tool-debt-treasury-market-stress/
- Published: 2026-09-28T19:56:56.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-28T19:56:56.000Z
- Description: A new paid-subscriber dashboard tracks Treasury market stress, rate pressure, and volatility—and shows where debt market stress is concentrated.
- Author: Paul Kedrosky

The U.S. Treasury market is among the world's **largest and most liquid**. Its yields anchor **borrowing costs and asset valuations** well beyond government bonds. Stress in Treasuries canripple through **leveraged finance, sovereign debt, equity flows,** and **AI infrastructure financing.**

With yields at levels that sharply [**raise hurdles for AI debt**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-28/man-group-says-5-5-yields-risk-cracking-ai-capex-us-consumer), as well as creating sovereign financing issues, this is a **systemic risk measure** that must be closely watched. 

**Treasury Market Stress** tracks **auction tails**, **primary-dealer take-down**, **rate pressure**, and **rate volatility** by maturity, alongside a five-year **stress index**.

The component readings remain visible beside the overall measure, with historical comparisons where the data support them. This makes it possible to distinguish a weak auction at one maturity from broader pressure across the Treasury market.

![Treasury Market Stress dashboard showing the overall index and its five-year history](https://paulkedrosky.com/assets/images/treasury-stress-card.png)

**Data limitations:** Treasury yields are official daily observations, not intraday quotes. Independent pre-auction yield coverage is currently incomplete, so **tail history is limited** and is excluded from the historical index.

**Available to paid subscribers:** [Open the dashboard](https://paulkedrosky.com/tools/treasury-stress/) or visit the [tools page](https://paulkedrosky.com/tools/).