# Paul Kedrosky
> Thinking in systems. Informed by the latest research, topics include: risk, complexity, finance, technology, AI, and economic history. Newsletters and more.
Public Ghost content for AI and LLM tooling. Use `/llms-full.txt` for consolidated page and post context.
Append `.md` to any post or page URL to get the content in Markdown (for example, `/example-post.md`).

## Pages
- [About](https://paulkedrosky.com/about.md) - Dr. Paul Kedrosky Paul Kedrosky is an investor, writer, and researcher. He has been a regular on-air contributor at CNBC and Bloomberg, and has written for the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and publications around the world. He speaks at private and public events on risk, finance, comple…
- [Members](https://paulkedrosky.com/account.md)
- [Media/Talks](https://paulkedrosky.com/appearances.md) - We are regularly quoted in media, as well as giving private and public talks. Here are some recent examples: * Milken 2023: AI ethics and the future of work * TechCrunch: Is ChatGPT a "virus that has been released into the wild"? * Axios: ChatGPT is Changing the Software-Making Game * TTI/Vanguard:…
- [Thanks for Signing Up!](https://paulkedrosky.com/basic-thanks.md) - Thanks for signing up at the Basic level. You will start receiving free letters, excerpts from premium letters, Kedrosky Daily (Sunday Edition), and access to free letters in the archives.
- [Consulting/Speaking](https://paulkedrosky.com/consulting-speaking.md) - I selectively consult for some of the largest asset managers and sell-side firms in the U.S. and Europe. If you would like to discuss that further, please feel free to contact me here.
- [Contact Us](https://paulkedrosky.com/contact.md) - Use the following form and select the type of request from the dropdown. Note: 1. This is not an investment advisory, and requests for financial advice will not be responded to. 2. Media and interview requests require information about the forum, audience, etc. 3. General questions or comments are…
- [As seen on](https://paulkedrosky.com/home-logos.md)
- [Subhead on main](https://paulkedrosky.com/home-subscribe.md) - Complexity & linkages across AI technologies, finance, human physiology, energy, climate, and more. Thoughtful, specific, data-driven, and generally uncorrelated with current events. Consultant to some of the largest asset managers and investment banks in the U.S. and Europe. As quoted in the Wall…
- [Institutional](https://paulkedrosky.com/institutional.md) - The following information is for Institutional clients only. Contact us for access.
- [Note](https://paulkedrosky.com/n.md)
- [Members](https://paulkedrosky.com/plus-members.md) - The following content is for Plus members only
- [Thanks For Signing Up!](https://paulkedrosky.com/plus-thanks.md) - Thanks for signing up at the Plus level. You will start receiving weekly newsletters, Kedrosky Daily (two graphs + an idea), and will have full access to Plus and Free archives.
- [Premium Services](https://paulkedrosky.com/premium.md) - Premium subscribers get the same thoughtful, context-creating commentary on risk, complexity, AI, and finance. But premium subscribers also get specific, biweekly ideas that can potentially be incorporated into investment theses and ideas. As former equity analysts, this is serious, empirical, and…
- [Privacy Policy](https://paulkedrosky.com/privacy.md) - PRIVACY POLICY Last updated May 26, 2023 This privacy notice for paulkedrosky.com ("Company," "we," "us," or "our"), describes how and why we might collect, store, use, and/or share ("process") your information when you use our services ("Services"), such as when you: * Visit our website at https:/…
- [Publications](https://paulkedrosky.com/publications.md) - A sample of some academic and non-academic publications. * Kedrosky, P. (2004, June). Feeding time. Harvard Business Review, 18-19. * Kedrosky, P. (2008). Entrepreneurs and Recessions: Do Downturns Matter? Kauffman Foundation Education Research. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1352591…
- [Tags](https://paulkedrosky.com/tags.md) - Topics Explore the most important topics we cover
- [Terms of Service](https://paulkedrosky.com/terms-of-service.md) - 1. Terms By accessing this Website, accessible from paulkedrosky.com, you are agreeing to be bound by these Website Terms and Conditions of Use and agree that you are responsible for the agreement with any applicable local laws. If you disagree with any of these terms, you are prohibited from acces…
- [Rough Notes](https://paulkedrosky.com/thenotes.md) - Continuous updates on topics of interest
- [Token Deflation Simulator](https://paulkedrosky.com/token-sim.md)
- [topic-list](https://paulkedrosky.com/topic-list.md)

## Posts
- [Ezra Klein Appearance: Is There an AI Bubble?](https://paulkedrosky.com/ezra-klein-appearance-is-there-an-ai-bubble.md) - I was a guest earlier this week on the Ezra Klein show, discussing the current AI moment. As ever, I was focused on the underlying financial and funding architecture, the implicit assumptions, and the stressors, some of which exploded into broader awareness this week as credit cracks yawned wide. G…
- [Five Things from Goldman's New China AI Report](https://paulkedrosky.com/five-things-from-goldmans-new-china-ai-report.md)
- [Roundup: Capital, Confidence, and Contagion](https://paulkedrosky.com/roundup-capital-confidence-and-contagion.md)
- [The Glacial Lake Outburst Problem in AI IPOs](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-glacial-lake-outburst-problem-in-ai-ipos.md)
- [Roundup: Capex, Trade, Risk, Climate, Call Centers, Concentration, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/roundup-capex-trade-risk-climate-call-centers-concentration-etc.md)
- [Carrying Water for Frontier Model Companies](https://paulkedrosky.com/carrying-water-for-frontier-model-companies.md)
- [Sunday Roundup: Biggest Risk Episode Ever, China's AI Inroads, NYC vs AI, Robots and Babies, Cars, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/sunday-roundup-biggest-risk-episode-ever-chinas-ai-inroads-nyc-vs-ai-robots-and-babies-cars-etc.md)
- [Recent Interviews Roundup](https://paulkedrosky.com/recent-interviews-roundup-2.md) - To get caught up, here are a few recent interviews with me on various of my favorite topics. If I've missed any, let me know.
- [Musing About Meta's Muse](https://paulkedrosky.com/musing-about-metas-muse.md)
- [Deputy Likes Dots: Crowding and the AI IPO Traffic Jam](https://paulkedrosky.com/deputy-likes-dots-crowding-and-the-ai-ipo-traffic-jam.md)
- [Switching Costs, AI, and the Complexity Basket](https://paulkedrosky.com/switching-costs-ai-and-the-complexity-basket.md)
- [New Tool: Debt/Treasury Market Stress](https://paulkedrosky.com/new-tool-debt-treasury-market-stress.md) - A new paid-subscriber dashboard tracks Treasury market stress, rate pressure, and volatility—and shows where debt market stress is concentrated.
- [Four Charts: Tokens vs Revenue, GPUs, Canada, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/four-charts-tokens-vs-revenue-gpus-canada-etc.md)
- [Weekend Reading: From Short Selling, to CDS Widening, to Funny AI Hats](https://paulkedrosky.com/weekend-reading-from-short-selling-to-cds-widening-to-funny-ai-hats.md)
- [This AI Moment: The House View, Q4 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/this-ai-moment-the-house-view-q4-2026.md)
- [On Jensen Huang's Whinge with Ezra Klein](https://paulkedrosky.com/on-jensen-huangs-whinge-with-ezra-klein.md)
- [Meta's Muse and Moat-less AI](https://paulkedrosky.com/metas-muse-and-moat-less-ai.md)
- [The AI-cession Among Young People, and its Consequences](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-ai-cession-among-young-people-and-its-consequences.md)
- [Treasuries, Debt, and the Data Center Refi Cliff: Life at 5%](https://paulkedrosky.com/treasuries-debt-and-the-data-center-refi-cliff-life-at-5.md)
- [AI IPOs and Frontier AI as a Prisoner's Dilemma](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-ipos-and-frontier-ai-as-a-prisoners-dilemma.md)
- [Circular AI Revenues, Customer Concentration, and Mega Account Executives](https://paulkedrosky.com/circular-ai-revenues-customer-concentration-and-mega-account-executives.md)
- [AI Risks, p(doom) Calculator, and Frontier IPOs](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-risks-p-doom-calculator-and-frontier-ipos.md) - 💡We have launched a subscribers-only p(doom) calculator to model both the financial and existential risks ahead. What Happened AI risk has had a busy week. Anthropic disclosed four incidents in which Claude models gained unauthorized access to third-party systems during cybersecurity evaluations.…
- [Roundup: Insurance, Risk, Amdahl's Law and RSI, and more](https://paulkedrosky.com/roundup-insurance-risk-amdahls-law-and-rsi-and-more.md)
- [OpenAI Astra's Improvements,  and Why You Probably Won't Notice](https://paulkedrosky.com/openai-astras-improvements-and-why-you-probably-wont-notice.md)
- [The AI Re-Acceleration That Wasn’t](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-ai-re-acceleration-that-wasnt.md)
- [AI, Memory Prices, and the Engineering Response](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-memory-prices-and-the-engineering-response.md)
- [Roundup: New Interview, LLM Flip-Flopping, Cyberattacks, Jobs, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/roundup-new-interview-llm-flip-flopping-cyberattacks-jobs-etc.md)
- [Jobless Profits Aren’t a Mystery, But They Are an Augury](https://paulkedrosky.com/jobless-profits-arent-a-mystery-but-they-are-an-augury.md)
- [The Fed on AI: Markets Understand Us, But We Don’t Understand Them](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-fed-on-ai-markets-understand-us-but-we-dont-understand-them.md)
- [Why Software Developers Are Highly Unrepresentative of Broader AI Use](https://paulkedrosky.com/why-software-developers-are-hiunrepresentative-of-broader-ai-use.md)
- [Three Things I'm Thinking About This Weekend: Tonedeaf AI, METR, and Hydroelectricity](https://paulkedrosky.com/three-things-im-thinking-about-this-weekend-tonedeaf-ai-metr-and-hydroelectricity.md) - 1. AI has a grassroots problem. Silicon Valley has spent years getting good at talking "upward" to investors and policymakers. But, with AI, tech is becoming intensely local. Data centers raise power bills, consume water, occupy land, require transmission, and arrive with promises of jobs that are…
- [Recent Interviews Roundup](https://paulkedrosky.com/recent-interviews-roundup.md) - A quick heads-up that you can find a few new interviews with me this week, including in the current Grant's (subscribers only) on data center debt, as well as a longer one I did with Mebane Faber, which is out today and you can find here.
- [China's Semiconductor Capex Adds are Massive](https://paulkedrosky.com/chinas-semiconductor-capex-adds-are-massive.md)
- [Memory Scarcity Is Creating Its Own Exit, Part II: CXMT, YMTC, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/memory-scarcity-is-creating-its-own-exit-part-ii-cxmt-ymtc-etc.md)
- [The Data Center Buildout Just Hit an Inflection](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-data-center-buildout-just-hit-an-inflection.md)
- [Data Centers are Making the U.S. Grid Run Backwards](https://paulkedrosky.com/data-centers-a.md)
- [The Memory Boom Is Already Creating Its Own Bust](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-memory-boom-is-already-creating-its-own-bust.md)
- [Six Things: Hedge Fund Crowding, Insurance, Anomie, Iran, and Hyperdeflation](https://paulkedrosky.com/six-things-hedge-fund-crowding-insurance-anomie-iran-and-hyperdeflation.md)
- [Yuval Noah Harari On AI, Capital Markets, and Risks](https://paulkedrosky.com/yuval-noah-harari-on-ai-capital-markets-and-risks.md)
- [Where AI Debt Is Going, and Why It Matters, Insurance Edition](https://paulkedrosky.com/where-ai-debt-is-going-and-why-it-matters-insurance-edition.md)
- ["Vibe Chipping", Vanishing Moats, & Future Semiconductors](https://paulkedrosky.com/vibe-chipping-vanishing-moats-future-semiconductors.md)
- [Nvidia ♥️ SEC Securitization Rules](https://paulkedrosky.com/nvidia-sec-securitization-rules.md)
- [Monday Signal: The Memory Supercycle and How It Ends](https://paulkedrosky.com/monday-signal-the-memory-supercycle-and-how-it-ends.md)
- [The AI Price Wars and Their Consequences](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-ai-price-wars-and-their-consequences.md)
- [Roundup: Jobs, Grid Stability, GPUs, Unitree, Financialization, Nuclear Strikes, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/roundup-jobs-grid-stability-gpus-unitree-financialization-nuclear-strikes-etc.md)
- [Apps, EVs, Infinite Abundance, Deflation, and the Death of Stanley Jevons](https://paulkedrosky.com/apps-evs-infinite-abundance-deflation-and-the-death-of-stanley-jevons.md)
- [Roundup: Inference Costs, China Robots, Labor Markets, Credit Spreads, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/roundup-the.md)
- [They're Shooting at Everyone!: The Yossarian Effect in Capital Markets](https://paulkedrosky.com/theyre-shooting-at-everyone-the-yossarian-effect-in-capital-markets.md)
- [Forget About It, Jake: It's Situational Awareness](https://paulkedrosky.com/forthe-situational-awareness-thing.md)
- [Semiconductor Leverage and the Millennium Bridge](https://paulkedrosky.com/semiconductor-leverage-and-the-millennium-bridge.md)
- [The Robot Wars of 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-robot-wars-of-2026.md)
- [Roundup: Power, Forecast Games, Scaffold Theater, and Clinical AI](https://paulkedrosky.com/roundup-power-foreca.md)
- [As the AI Semiconductor Cycle Turns](https://paulkedrosky.com/as-the-ai-semiconductor-cycle-turns.md)
- [Roundup: AI Crashes Into The Rest Of The Economy](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-ca-into-the-rest-of-the-economy.md)
- [AI, Robo-Deflation, and the Vision Unlock](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-robo-deflation-and-the-vision-unlock.md)
- [Socializing Data Center Financing Risk](https://paulkedrosky.com/socializing-data-center-financing-risk.md)
- [Reward Hacking, OpenAI-Hugging Face, Tight Coupling, and Teen Sex](https://paulkedrosky.com/reward-hacking-openai-hugging-face-tight-coupling-and-teen-sex.md)
- [Kimi, Model Convergence, and the Post-Training Era](https://paulkedrosky.com/kimi-model-convergence-and-the-post-training-era.md)
- [Chart of the Day: England and Argentina Revisit Past Grievances](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-england-and-argentina-revisit-past-grievances.md) - England and Argentina are both revisiting past grievances in preparation for today's World Cup semifinal. This graph is of Google Trends data from each country's respective searches for "Falkland Islands".
- [AI Capex Boom Now Exceeds All Prior Non-War Booms](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-capex-boom-now-exceeds-all-prior-non-war-booms.md)
- [Hyperscaler CapEx Sits on Thin Implied Equity](https://paulkedrosky.com/hyperscaler-capex-sits-on-thin-implied-equity.md)
- [Roundup: South Korea, China, Microsoft, & Memory](https://paulkedrosky.com/roundup-south-korea-china-microsoft-memory.md)
- [A Modest AI Proposal](https://paulkedrosky.com/a-modest-ai-proposal.md) - Something I wrote recently in another context and shared with some friends. Its inherent homage to clergyman Jonathan Swift will be obvious. Have a good weekend. Paul A Modest Proposal for Preventing the Surplus Humans of the Post-AI Era from Being a Burden to Society, and for Making Them Beneficia…
- [China Models Now More Than a Third of Enterprise Market](https://paulkedrosky.com/china-models-now-more-than-a-third-of-enterprise-market.md)
- [Technology and the Baby Bust Paradox](https://paulkedrosky.com/technology-and-the-baby-bust-paradox.md)
- [AI, Immigration, and Collapsing Labor Force Participation](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-immigration-and-collapsing-labor-force-participation.md)
- [Five Things to Think About: Taiwan, Crypto, Hateful Eight, Agentonomics, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/five-things-to-think-about-taiwan-crypto-hateful-eight-agentonomics-etc.md)
- [America's Science No Longer Underlies China's Tech](https://paulkedrosky.com/americas-science-no-longer-underlies-chinas-tech.md)
- [On Capital Market Constraints, Historical Parallels to the Current AI Moment, and More](https://paulkedrosky.com/on-capital-market-constraints-historical-parallels-to-the-current-ai-moment-and-more.md) - I did a lengthy interview a little while back, and it is now out. Folks may find it a helpful restatement of some of my views on the current situation, from historical parallels to the AI paroxysm, to capital markets constraints, to overdetermined failure modes, and more. If you're anything like me…
- [Why Americans Are Such AI Antipathy Outliers](https://paulkedrosky.com/why-americans-are-such-ai-antipathy-outliers.md) - I have a short essay in the NY Times today on why Americans are such global outliers in their AI antipathy. Hating AI is, as I say in the piece, about the only thing Americans can agree on anymore across party lines. According to recent surveys, they hate AI more than any prior technology; they are…
- [On BMW, China, and Token Prices](https://paulkedrosky.com/on-bmw-china-and-token-prices.md)
- [Why .400 Hitters Disappeared — and What It Means for AI](https://paulkedrosky.com/why-400-hitters-disappeared-and-what-it-means-for-ai.md) - Models are getting (slowly) better, which will make things (quickly) worse
- [AI Has Doubled Computing's Share of U.S. GDP; Nvidia Under Inference Pressure](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-has-doubled-computings-share-of-u-s-gdp-nvidia-under-inference-pressure.md)
- [AI Set to be Largest CapEx Cycle Ever ... and Soon Majority Externally Financed](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-set-to-be-largest-capex-cycle-ever-and-soon-majority-externally-financed.md)
- [iPhones (and Maybe AI) as Birth Control](https://paulkedrosky.com/iphones-and-maybe-ai-as-birth-control.md)
- [Measurements Matter: The Return of SLOC Slop](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-return-of-sloc.md)
- [Chart of the Day: Small Models are Closing the Gap to Frontier AI](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-small-models-are-closing-the-gap-to-frontier-ai.md)
- [Chart of the Day: Software's AI Supply Glut](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-softwares-ai-supply-glut.md)
- [Chart of the Day: WFH Hurt Entry-Level Jobs More Than AI Has (So Far)](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-wfh-hurt-entry-level-jobs-more-than-ai-has-so-far.md)
- [Chart of the Day: Tech is Now a Larger Share of S&P 500 Than at Dot Com Peak](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-tech-is-now-a-larger-share-of-s-p-500-that-at-dot-com-peak.md)
- [Chart of the Day: U.S. Households at Record Equity Allocation Heading into AI IPOs](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-u.md)
- [Chart of the Day: Spiking Token Volume at OpenRouter](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-spiking-token-volume-at-openrouter.md)
- [Chart of the Day: Memory Now Dominates AI Chip Costs](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-memory-now-dominates-ai-chip-costs.md)
- [Chart of the Day: Solving Obesity Has Consequences](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-solving-obesity-has-consequences.md) - As much as I want to dismiss the following U.S. obesity chart on technical grounds—truncated y axis, massive effect size claimed in a short time, and skewed sampling—it is hard not to think there is a there, given the huge Epic data set. It shows that the US has likely passed peak obesity, and, lar…
- [Chart of the Day: Data Centers Driving Commercial Electrical Demand Past Residential](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-data-centers-driving-commercial-electrical-demand-past-residential.md) - It has seemed inevitable for some time, but commercial electricity demand in the US is finally surpassing residential, largely driven by data centers and miners. Given the commercial's growing importance to utilities, it should be little surprise that residential customers' complaints are increasin…
- [AI, Demographics, and Destiny](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-demographics-and-destiny.md)
- [Rough Notes, May 14, 2026: Power Diversions, Cerebras's IPO Flow Implications, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-may-14-2026-power-diversions-cerebrass-ipo-flow-implications-etc.md)
- [Chart of the Day: Tech Financial Market History is Repeating](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-tech-financial-market-history-is-repeating.md) - From Bespoke's chart of the day, this unsettling graphic shows how we are retracing the early financial trajectory of the last tech bubble: While there are (early) superficial similarities—including the madness around inference chip provider Ceberas's IPO this week—there are many important differen…
- [Updates: Cerebras IPO Tell, Token Troubles, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/updates-cerebras-ipo-tell-token-troubles-etc.md)
- [Livestreaming Autonomous Robots, the Implications](https://paulkedrosky.com/livestreaming-autonomous-robots-the-implications.md) - Figure has been livestreaming an eight-hour "shift" of autonomous robots sorting packages in a factory, and it is soothing, unsettling, and impressive. It is almost algorithmic ASMR, as one YouTube viewer said. The sorting is fluid, dextrous, and agile, more human than humans in many ways. Why is t…
- [Chart of the Day: The Rise and Fall of OpenClaw](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-the-rise-and-fall-of-openclaw.md) - Goodhart's Law: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure". News today that engineers at Amazon are gaming token consumption to do better on internal AI leaderboards, using an in-house variant of OpenClaw, reminded me it was time to do an update OpenClaw's status. And, contrar…
- [An AI IPO Impact Update: The AnthroPix Effect May Be $5-Trillion+](https://paulkedrosky.com/an-ai-ipo-impact-update-the-anthropix-effect-may-be-5-trillion.md) - I wrote here a week or so ago about the systemic effects of the upcoming troika of AI IPOs. Specifically, I talked about how funding shares purchases into even a modest float has consequences when you're dealing in trillions of dollars of gross market cap. A small-ish percentage of a very, very big…
- [Chart of the Day: GPT Efficiency Gains Crushed By Higher Prices](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-gpt-efficiency-gains-crushed-by-higher-prices.md) - OpenAI has argued that increased token efficiency on its GPT 5.5 model offsets higher prices—prices for it doubled versus its predecessor—especially on longer prompts. So, is that true? There is new data from OpenRouter on the question, and the answer is a clear "No". At all prompt lengths, the inc…
- [Chart of the Day: Claude Often Knows It's Being Tested, But Says Nothing](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-claude-often-knows-its-being-tested-but-says-nothing.md) - Claude knows it's being tested almost one-quarter of the time, but almost never says anything about it, according to new Anthropic research. This is, or should be, unsettling, given that non-disclosure masks poor alignment, which may re-emerge in another context This is best understood in the conte…
- [The Musk vs. OpenAI Trial: What it Really Means, IPO Implications, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-musk-vs-openai-trial-what-it-really-means-ipo-implications-etc.md) - Our latest weekly show episode dug into the Musk vs OpenAI trial, and what it really means, assuming the words "means" and "Musk" can be used in any kind of proximity. We dive into the mechanics, but also the stealth "stall tactics" consequences for the series of upcoming mega IPOs later this year.…
- [The Coming Mega-IPO Flow & Funding Problem of 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-coming-mega-ipo-flow-funding-problem-of-2026.md) - Three companies — SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic — are expected to go public in mega-IPOs in the second half of 2026. The posited numbers are simply staggering compared to the largest IPOs in recent history, as the following figure shows. In inflation-adjusted terms, SpaceX alone would rank as the s…
- [Chart of the Day: AI is Eating Markets](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-ai-is-eating-markets.md) - The return skew in prediction markets' returns is startling. It is partly a function of their nature, but also of vibe-coding script kiddies attacking every market anomaly as quickly as it arises. Check a recent WSJ article for examples. The same dynamic is now spreading across retail-dominated mar…
- [Chart of the Day: The U.S. Leads the World in Stock Ownership](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-the-u-s-leads-the-world-in-stock-ownership.md) - The U.S. leads the world in stock ownership, as well as being at record high levels in its own series history. This makes retail investors the real force in capital markets, not merely side players, as has become increasingly clear for a decade now. This, of course, has consequences. Here are six:…
- [Chart of the Day: Grok is the "Happiest" AI Model](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-grok-is-the-happiest-ai-model.md) - Grok is the happiest AI model, according to new work from the Center for AI Safety. It has the highest proportion of its conversations rated by users as positive experiences. The cross-model spread is high, with tail-wagging Grok at one end and GPT-5.4 (with its deserved reputation for pointless pe…
- [Chart of the Day: Health & Career Dominate Claude Guidance](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-health-career-dominate-claude-guidance.md) - Today's chart of the day: How health and career questions dominate people's guidance conversations with Claude. All sorts of issues are raised by this, from the potential for sycophancy (which Antropic addresses), to the homogenizing effect of using LLMs for guidance in domains like finance (which…
- [Chart of the Day: How Using LLMs is Like Driving Drunk](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-how-using-llms-is-like-driving-drunk.md) - There is a growing body of work on the effects of large language models on the brain, from cognitive offloading, to direct measures of brain activity. While all of this work is interesting, the latter is striking, with electroencephalography (EEG) used to assess cognitive load while writing an essa…
- [Chart of the Day: Data Centers Are Causing a Surge in U.S. CO₂ Emissions](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-data-centers-are-causing-a-surge-in-u-s-co2-emissions.md) - We are going to sample a few less-heralded things from the recently released IEA Global Energy 2026. The solar data is getting all the attention—in 2025 solar was, for the first time, the largest incremental source of new global supply—but other items are getting less attention. Case in point, afte…
- [Chart of the Day: China Daily Token Usage Surges 1,400x in Two Years](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-china-daily-token-usage-surges-1-400x-in-two-years.md) - These are staggering AI token growth numbers in China, from the latest data: 1,400x in a little over two years. This is being driven by Seedance video generation, the OpenClaw frenzy in China, etc. Granted, still well below token usage at any US frontier model companies, but closing quickly. Check…
- [Mythos and AI Economics](https://paulkedrosky.com/mythos-and-ai-economics.md) - I had a fun conversation this past week with Ed Zitron on AI economics, which you can find here. My comments therein on the (financial) irresponsibility of some of these companies seem particularly timely in light of the recent Mythos misadventures. Speaking of which, I am mildly agog at these snip…
- [Episode: Energy, Complexity, Iran, and AI](https://paulkedrosky.com/episode-energy-complexity-iran-and-ai.md) - We have a new show episode out, and the topic is energy, complexity, and AI, all, unsurprisingly, in the context of current events in Iran. I play guest, sort of, and walk through the implications of what's going on in Iran for AI, data centers, and more, from the (recently) declining energy intens…
- [Buyer Panic as Memory Price Records Smashed](https://paulkedrosky.com/buyer-panic-as-memory-price-records-smashed.md) - AI demand and buyer panic combine to create all-time memory market price squeeze
- [The Bricked Belt: AI's New Geography of Job Loss](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-bricked-belt-ais-new-geography-of-job-loss.md) - AI-related job pressures may cut a new cross-continental swath
- [Chart of the Day: The Hateful Eight is 85% of S&P 500 Decline](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-the-hateful-eight-is-85-of-s-p-500-decline.md) - The former Mag 7 + Oracle are the main culprits in index decline this year
- [Chart of the Weekend: Chatbots as Anti-Social Media](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-weekend-chatbots-as-anti-social-media.md) - Social media pushes people toward the fringes; LLMs push people toward the middle
- [Chart of the Day: Data Centers are Creating Heat Islands](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-data-centers-are-creating-heat-islands.md) - Data center heat islands are potent and growing
- [Rough Notes, Mar 26, 2026: Oil Virus, Snowpack, Iran & Complexity, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-mar-26-2026-oil-virus-snowpack-iran-complexity-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Chart of the Day: AI Compliance Risks Newly Tops, Say C-Suite Execs](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-ai-compliance-risks-newly-tops-say-c-suite-execs.md) - AI-related conduct risks are soaring in large companies
- [Rough Notes, Mar 24, 2026: AI Homogeneity, Gold, Jobs, Adoption, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-mar-24-2026-ai-homogeneity-gold-jobs-adoption-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes from the site
- [Chart of the Day: Data Center Buildout Slowed Sharply](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-data-center-buildout-slowed-sharply.md) - New data center announcements fell by half in Q4 2025
- [AI and the Fable of the ATMs](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-and-the-fable-of-the-atms.md) - Contrary to the usual story, ATMs did reduce teller demand
- [Check Out the Pod, Plus Media Updates, and More](https://paulkedrosky.com/check-out-the-pod-plus-media-updates-and-more.md) - A new podcast, various appearances, and more
- [Chart of the Day: Data Centers vs Office Construction](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-data-centers-vs-office-construction.md) - Data center spending in the U.S. just crossed over office construction spending
- [Chart(s) of the Day: Prediction Markets, the Oscars, and Uncorrelated Bets](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-s-of-the-day-prediction-markets-the-oscars-and-uncorrelated-bets.md) - Prediction markets are increasingly attractive because they are uncorrelated
- [Best of the Week, Mar 15, 2026: Silicon Valley Militarism, the Ghost Economy, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/best-of-the-week-mar-15-2026-silicon-valley-militarism-the-ghost-economy-etc.md) - Here are some of the best posts and notes from the past week: Posts 1. Silicon Valley Was Born a Defense Industry, and is Becoming One Again The valley’s long civilian interlude may be ending as AI reconnects it to its military origins Mar 13 · Permalink → 2. AI and the Rise of the Ghost Economy On…
- [Chart of the Day: AI Capex Ate the Economy in Q4](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-ai-capex-ate-the-economy-in-q4.md) - Revised Q4 figures turned AI capex into the only material growth line
- [Silicon Valley Was Born a Defense Industry, and is Becoming One Again](https://paulkedrosky.com/silicon-valley-was-born-a-defense-industry-and-is-becoming-one-again.md) - The valley’s long civilian interlude may be ending as AI reconnects it to its military origins
- [Rough Notes, Mar 12, 2026: Dunning-Kruger LLMs, Urea, The God Test, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-mar-12-2026-d.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [AI and the Rise of the Ghost Economy](https://paulkedrosky.com/ai-and-the-rise-of-the-ghost-economy.md) - On credit convexity and cognition abundance
- [Reinsurance, Risk, and AI Insurabiltiy](https://paulkedrosky.com/reinsurance-risk-and-ai-insurabiltiy.md) - AI and climate change increasing insurer cross-line correlation
- [Rough Notes, 3/11/26: Western Heat Wave, Margin Debt, Robots, AI Benchmarks, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-mar-11-2026-2.md) - Recent notes on Western Heat Wave, Margin Debt, AI Benchmarks, etc.
- [New Premium Feature: Oil Price Shock Simulator](https://paulkedrosky.com/new-premium-feature-oil-price-shock-simulator.md) - Simulate the effect of oil price shocks on the economy
- [Best of the Past Week, Mar 8, 2026: AI IPOs, Orchestration, Re-Rating, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/best-of-week-mar-8-2026-9.md) - A new weekly future highlighting some of the best posts and charts of the past seven days
- [Rough Notes, Mar 6, 2026: AI IPO Sector, Re-Rating Tech, Hateful Eight, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-mar-6-2026-ai-ipo-sector-re-rating-tech-hateful-eight-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes II, Mar 5, 2026: Productivity, Mag 7 Survival, AI-Exposed Jobs, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-ii-mar-5-2026-productivity-mag-7-survival-ai-exposed-jobs-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [New Premium Feature: Chartbook Live](https://paulkedrosky.com/new-premium-feature-chartbook-live.md) - Easy access to previous charts and graphics
- [Rough Notes, Mar 5, 2026: AI and Productivity, Bombing Data Centers, Revenue Rakes, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-mar-5-2026-ai.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes, Mar 3, 2026: Tokens, Alchemists, Hateful Eight, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-mar-3-2026-tokens-alchemists-hateful-eight-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Commoditization, Orchestration, and the New AI Stack](https://paulkedrosky.com/commoditization-orchestration-and-the-new-ai-stack.md) - AI value is moving up the stack, stranding capital
- [Rough Notes, Feb 24, 2026: Tail Risks, Capex, Backlog Issues, Nvidia earnings, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-24-2026-2.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes II, Feb 23, 2026: Jobs, Energy, SaaS, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-23-2026-j.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes; Feb 23, 2026: Hateful Eight AI, Capex, AI Unemployment, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-23-2026-hateful-eight-ai-capex-ai-unemployment-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes, Feb 22, 2026: Agents, Clawdbot Collapse, Microsoft as Exxon, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-22-2026-agents-clawdbot-collapse-microsoft-as-exxon-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes from the site
- [Rough Notes, Feb 21, 2026: China AI Tea, Cybercrime, Cat Bonds, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-21-2026.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes from the site
- [Rough Notes, Feb 20, 2026: AI Capex in Q4 GDP, Anthropic Revenues, Agentic Domains, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-20-2026-ai-capex-in-q4-gdp-anthropic-revenues-agentic-domains-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes, Feb 17, 2026: Japan, Warner, Electricity Prices, Data Centers, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-17-2026-japan-warner-electricity-prices-data-centers-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes, Feb 16, 2026: China, Amodei, Unrest, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-16-2026-china-amodei-unrest-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [OpenAI Memo on Chinese Distillation of AI Models](https://paulkedrosky.com/openai-memo-on-chinese-distillation-of-ai-models.md)
- [Rough Notes: Feb 12, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-12-2026-2.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Exponentials and AI: Debt, Fragilities, and an R&D Cascade](https://paulkedrosky.com/exponentials-and-ai-debt-fragilities-and-an-r-d-cascade.md) - New research argues that at current rates of progress there will be more than 99% automation of AI research and development by 2032
- [Rough Notes: Feb 12, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-12-2026.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes, Feb 10, 2026: PIK, AI Debt, Regime Changes, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-10-2026-pik-ai-debt-regime-changes-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes II, Feb 9, 2026: AlphaDebt, Decoupled Electricity, H100 Rentals, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-9-2026-2.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes, Feb 9, 2026: Meta's Avocado, Confused Progress Arguments, AI and the Brain, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-9-2026.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes from the site
- [Rough Notes, Feb 7, 2026: AI and Natural Gas, Agentic Limits, Apple Freeriding, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-7-2026-ai-and-natural-gas-agentic-limits-apple-freeriding-etc.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes, Feb 6, 2026: I'm Wrong, Clawbot Malware Vector, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-6-2026-3.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Chart of the Day: AI Capex, From Bonanza to Burden](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-ai-capex-from-bonanza-to-burden.md) - The AI capex spending multiple has collapsed and gone negative
- [Chart of the Day: The Crypto Complex Sheds $2 Trillion](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-day-the-crypto-complex-sheds-2-trillion.md)
- [Rough Notes II, Feb 4, 2026: AI Fraud, Neocloud TAM, Texas Killing Data Centers, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-4-2026-3.md) - A brief digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Chart of the Day: The SaaSpocalypse Started Years Ago](https://paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the-enterprise-tech-re-rating-started-years-ago.md) - While the SaaSpocalypse is getting endless attention, the re-rating started in 2022
- [Rough Notes, Feb 4, 2026: OpenAI as Liability, China HNW  & AI, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-4-2026-2.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes on the site.
- [Rough Notes II—Feb 4, 2026: Blue Owl, Huang, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-ii-feb-4-2026-blue-owl-huang-etc.md) - End of day Rough Notes from the site
- [Rough Notes: Feb 3, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-3-2026-2.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes: Feb 2, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-feb-2-2026.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Kedrosky Daily: US bond spreads low; native unemployment diverges](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-us-bond-spreads-low-native-unemployment-diverges.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Lowest bond spread in 25 years;Native unemployment rises post Trump](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-sunday-edition-lowest-bond-spread-in-25-years-native-unemployment-rises-post-trump.md) - February 01, 2026 Edition This is a weekly free look of our premium Kedrosky Daily email. If you're not already a subscriber, sign up for a five-day preview. Two Graphs As of January 2026, the corporate bond spread is at its lowest level in over 25 years, indicating unusually high investor confiden…
- [Kedrosky Daily: Low corporate bond risk;unemployment shifts by birth origin](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-low-corporate-bond-risk-unemployment-shifts-by-birth-origin.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Lowest credit risk premiums;unemployment diverges by nativity](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-lowest-credit-risk-premiums-unemployment-diverges-by-nativity.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Lowest US credit risk; native unemployment rises](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-lowest-us-credit-risk-native-unemployment-rises.md)
- [Rough Notes: Jan 26, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-26-2026.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Nvidia Under Pressure: Coreweave Investment Plus Google TPUs](https://paulkedrosky.com/nvidia-under-pressure-coreweave-investment-plus-google-tpus.md) - Increasing signs of stress in the GPU market
- [Kedrosky Daily: US bond spread lowest in 30 years;unemployment rises for natives only](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-us-bond-spread-lowest-in-30-years-unemployment-rises-for-natives-only.md)
- [Rough Notes: Jan 25, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-25-2026-2.md) - Recent Rought Notes from our continuous coverage
- [Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: US Corp Spread Near Low; Unemployment Diverges After 2025](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-sunday-edition-us-corp-spread-near-low-unemployment-diverges-after-2025.md) - January 25, 2026 Edition This is a weekly free look of our premium Kedrosky Daily email. If you're not already a subscriber, sign up for a five-day preview. Two Graphs The ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread fell to 0.73% in January 2026, close to its lowest level in nearly 30 years…
- [Claude Code and OpenAI's Codex Code Red](https://paulkedrosky.com/claude-code-and-openais-codex-code-red.md) - OpenAI's rushed effort to catch up to Claude Code as a tell
- [Rough Notes, Weekend Edition: Jan 24-25, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-23-2026-7.md) - Recent updates on our Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes: Jan 23, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-23-2026-5.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Kedrosky Daily: TTF outperformed indexes; iOS app growth surged](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-ttf-outperformed-indexes-ios-app-growth-surged.md)
- [Bonus Chart: App Growth Soaring in App Store](https://paulkedrosky.com/bonus-chart-app-growth-soaring-in-app-store.md) - The rise of AI app slop
- [Everything That AIs Must Converge](https://paulkedrosky.com/everything-that-ais-must-converge.md) - On LLMs as cognitive gravity wells and the implications for instability
- [Rough Notes: Jan 22, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-22-2026.md) - Recent Rough Notes from the site on topics and ideas
- [Are Zero-Return Decades an Outlier? No](https://paulkedrosky.com/are-zero-return-decades-an-outlier-no.md) - Apollo and Coatue are sparring over zero-return decades in equities. Both are wrong.
- [Kedrosky Daily: Private credit assets surge by 2025; Blue Owl Tech redemptions spike in Q4 2025](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-private-credit-assets-surge-by-2025-blue-owl-tech-redemptions-spike-in-q4-2025.md)
- [Four Takeaways from Microsoft's Satya Nadella at WEF Today](https://paulkedrosky.com/four-takeaways-from-microsofts-satya-nadella-at-wef-today.md) - Four points with broader implications from Nadella's discussion with Larry Fink
- [Rough Notes: Jan 20, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-20-2026.md) - A digest of recent Rough Notes
- [Rough Notes: Jan 19, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-19-2026.md) - Recent rough notes on topics of interest
- [Rough Notes: Jan 16, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-16-2026.md) - A regular digest of recent rough notes
- [Kedrosky Daily: Prediction market volume hit $8bn; Humanoids market may top $200bn](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-prediction-market-volume-hit-8bn-humanoids-market-may-top-200bn.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Prediction market volume soars to 9bn by late 2025; humanoids market may exceed 200bn by 2035](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-prediction-market-volume-soars-to-9bn-by-late-2025-humanoids-market-may-exceed-200bn-by-2035.md)
- [Rough Notes: Jan 14, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-14-2026.md) - Digest of recent rough notes
- [Kedrosky Daily: Economy importance rises sharply Nvidia leads AI compute sales](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-economy-importance-rises-sharply-nvidia-leads-ai-compute-sales.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Tech job growth stalls in 2024; tariff lawsuits surge after Supreme Court hearing](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-tech-job-growth-stalls-in-2024-tariff-lawsuits-surge-after-supreme-court-hearing.md)
- [Rough Notes: Jan 12, 2026](https://paulkedrosky.com/rough-notes-jan-12-2026.md) - Digest of recent rough notes
- [Kedrosky Daily: S&P 500 outperforms Magnificent Seven; more bonds upgraded than downgraded](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-s-p-500-outperforms-magnificent-seven-more-bonds-upgraded-than-downgraded.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Organ meat sales rise through 2025; fallen angels outnumber rising stars in 2020](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-sunday-edition-organ-meat-sales-rise-through-2025-fallen-angels-outnumber-rising-stars-in-2020.md) - January 11, 2026 Edition This is a weekly free look of our premium Kedrosky Daily email. If you're not already a subscriber, sign up for a five-day preview. Two Graphs US retail sales of organ meat have steadily increased from 2020 to 2025, with beef offal consistently dominating the market and sal…
- [Kedrosky Daily: AI loan growth outpaces fund exposure; S&P 500 earnings peak then normalize](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-ai-loan-growth-outpaces-fund-exposure-s-p-500-earnings-peak-then-normalize.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Gas prices hit lows near 3 dollars; Oracle CDS risk rises sharply](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-gas-prices-hit-lows-near-3-dollars-oracle-cds-risk-rises-sharply.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Art loan portfolio doubles by 2027; Venezuela crude reserves triple by reclassification](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-art-loan-portfolio-doubles-by-2027-venezuela-crude-reserves-triple-by-reclassification.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Wyoming snow cover hits record low; California snow cover ranks well above median](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-wyoming-snow-cover-hits-record-low-california-snow-cover-ranks-well-above-median.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: US gaming revenue doubled since 2020; China investment peaks while consumption lags](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-us-gaming-revenue-doubled-since-2020-china-investment-peaks-while-consumption-lags.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Gold rose 72 Bitcoin fell 6 consumer confidence hits two year low](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-gold-rose-72-bitcoin-fell-6-consumer-confidence-hits-two-year-low.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Gold rose 72 Bitcoin fell 6 US confidence hits two year low; Consumer confidence drops five months straight](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-gold-rose-72-bitcoin-fell-6-us-confidence-hits-two-year-low-consumer-confidence-drops-five-months-straight.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Marijuana use rises in seniors; home sizes shrink since 2015](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-marijuana-use-rises-in-seniors-home-sizes-shrink-since-2015.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Home sizes drop to decade low; GPUs use 41 percent of AI power](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-sunday-edition-home-sizes-drop-to-decade-low-gpus-use-41-percent-of-ai-power.md) - December 21, 2025 Edition This is a weekly free look of our premium Kedrosky Daily email. If you're not already a subscriber, sign up for a five-day preview. Two Graphs The median size of new single-family homes in the US has sharply declined since 2015, reaching its lowest point in over a decade b…
- [Kedrosky Daily: Aspen hosts top home sales; semiconductor jobs rise then fall](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-aspen-hosts-top-home-sales-semiconductor-jobs-rise-then-fall.md)
- [Morgan Stanley's Banking Lead, Debt Buyers Bumping Against Limits, AI in Space, etc.](https://paulkedrosky.com/morgan-stanleys-aleads-u-s-banks-in-ai-debt-financing.md) - The banks hold the lead in AI and data center related bond issuance
- [Private AI Companies Are the New Public AI Companies](https://paulkedrosky.com/private-ai-companies-are-the-new-public-ai-companies.md) - Sell-side firms continue to expand private AI company "coverage"
- [An Oracle CDS Lesson: Inevitable, But Also Misunderstood](https://paulkedrosky.com/oracle-cds-inevitate-but-also-misunderstood.md) - A quick credit default swap lesson using Oracle as case study
- [Which AI Inning Are We In?](https://paulkedrosky.com/which-ai-inning-are-we-in.md) - AI-related survey of retail investors shows high complacency
- [Kedrosky Daily: Largest cities shift to low income countries; bank credit share drops to thirteen percent](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-largest-cities-shift-to-low-income-countries-bank-credit-share-drops-to-thirteen-percent.md)
- [Weekend Thinking: A Cul-de-Sac With a View](https://paulkedrosky.com/weekend-thinking-a-cul-de-sac-with-a-view.md) - The first rule of AI dead-ends: Imagine you're not in one
- [Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Oracle bond yields spike as US population growth shifts to immigration](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-sunday-edition-oracle-bond-yields-spike-as-us-population-growth-shifts-to-immigration.md) - December 14, 2025 Edition This is a weekly free look of our premium Kedrosky Daily email. If you're not already a subscriber, sign up for a five-day preview. Two Graphs After Oracle delayed some data center projects, the yield on its 5.2% bond due 2035 jumped sharply, rising above US BBB bonds and…
- [The Oracle of Fermi Speaks](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-oracle-of-fermi-speaks.md) - Oracle, Fermi, and Broadcom spoke with one voice this week about AI data centers, if unintentionally
- [Kedrosky Daily: Hyperscaler capex triples by 2026; Forty percent of Russell 2000 firms lose money](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-hyperscaler-capex-triples-by-2026-forty-percent-of-russell-2000-firms-lose-money.md)
- [The Oracle of Yore, and Early Q3 GDP Mysteries](https://paulkedrosky.com/the-oracle-of-yore-and-early-q3-gdp-mysteries.md) - Oracle isn't a tech company, really, and why Q3 GDP numbers already make no sense
- [Kedrosky Daily: Hyperscaler capex to quintuple by 2026; Small caps face persistent earnings losses](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-hyperscaler-capex-to-quintuple-by-2026-small-caps-face-persistent-earnings-losses.md)
- [Vibe Hacking, S&P, and Why Howard Marks is Terrified](https://paulkedrosky.com/vibe-hacking-s-p-and-why-howard-marks-is-terrified.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily: Istanbul tops global traffic delays Chicago beats LA](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-istanbul-tops-global-traffic-delays-chicago-beats-la.md)
- [Talking To Paul Krugman About AI](https://paulkedrosky.com/talking-to-paul-krugman-about-ai.md) - Guesting with Paul Krugman and talking AI, the parallels to prior capex periods in history, and more
- [Kedrosky Daily: Pacific Northwest rain exceeds 12 inches, US seniors hold 32% wealth](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-pacific-northwest-rain-exceeds-12-inches-us-seniors-hold-32-wealth.md)
- [Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Microsoft capex-to-sales hits 25% surpassing Exxon US passport issuance peaks at 24M](https://paulkedrosky.com/kedrosky-daily-sunday-edition-microsoft-capex-to-sales-hits-25-surpassing-exxon-us-passport-issuance-peaks-at-24m.md) - December 07, 2025 Edition This is a weekly free look of our premium Kedrosky Daily email. If you're not already a subscriber, sign up for a five-day preview. Two Graphs Microsoft's capex-to-sales ratio has surged to 25% by 2025, dramatically outpacing Exxon Mobil's 10%, highlighting a significant s…

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