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# Four Ideas, Sunday Edition: Supply Chain, China Stimulus, Private Equity, Consumer Sentiment
- URL: https://paulkedrosky.com/four-ideas-sunday-edition-supply-chain-china-stimulus-private-equity-consumer-sentiment/
- Published: 2024-09-29T13:44:10.000Z
- Updated: 2024-09-29T13:44:10.000Z
- Author: Paul Kedrosky
- Tags: four-ideas-sunday-edition

**Good morning, and welcome to today's Four Ideas.**

**SEPTEMBER 29, 2024 EDITION**

This a weekly free look of our premium daily Four Ideas email. If you're not already a subscriber, and you'd like to try it, there is a [five-day preview](https://paulkedrosky.com/#/portal/signup/648103c473f8b0fd77e0b79a/monthly). 

**⏱️ tl;dr:**

**Dish** and **DirecTV** close to merger deal ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/28/business/dealbook/dish-directv-deal.html)) ... **OpenAI's** path to becoming for-profit ([WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-complex-path-to-becoming-a-for-profit-company-bad21a42)) ... **Nuclear power** not seen as solution ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/world/europe/putin-russia-nuclear-doctrine.html)) ... **Helene** causes severe flooding, power outages in US South ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-25/tropical-storm-helene-gains-power-as-it-bears-down-on-florida)) ... **FT Magazine**: smuggler's daughter from Gulf of Aden ([FT](https://www.ft.com/content/53577e3d-8f12-419e-8cef-1ea9eb45b71a)) ... **Thailand** starts cash handouts to boost economy ([FT](https://www.ft.com/content/386f3a9e-3303-4937-a54c-ce647f623b9d)) ... **Europe’s rearmament** faces obstacles ([WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-russias-kursk-ukraine-takes-on-a-new-role-occupier-d8b77d95)) ... **OpenAI** burning through cash rapidly ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html)) ... **Freight rates** rise amid potential US port strike ([FT](https://www.ft.com/content/7fdd7d4a-794c-46f2-95c5-aa317a5163a4)) ... **US ports** face closure as dockworker talks stall ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/us-ports-are-threatened-with-strikes-in-election-season-jolt)) ... **Minium's Hedge Fund** keeps raising funds ([WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/mutualfund/VBIAX)) ... **France** considers new taxes on large firms ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-29/french-government-weighs-new-taxes-on-large-firms-le-monde-says))

**🤷🏻‍♂️ tgu ... tgd:**

| **TGU:** | Natural Gas +2.2% Lumber +1.2% VIX +0.8% Nikkei 225 +0.7% Platinum +0.6%                     |
| -------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **TGD**  | Crude Oil WTI \-1.3% Crude Oil Brent \-1.2% Oats \-1.1% Palladium \-1.1% Soybean Meal \-0.8% |

**THE IDEAS:**

**Topics:** Supply Chain, China Stimulus, Private Equity, Consumer Sentiment 

**Mentions:** JD.com, Alibaba, UniCredit, GM

### 01\. China's Stimulus Boosts Tech Giants

Recent headlines indicate a surge in Chinese stocks due to economic stimulus measures. Specifically, tech giants like Alibaba and JD.com have experienced significant stock boosts following these announcements. As China's economy recovers, these companies are likely to see sustained growth, making them attractive investments over the next 6-24 months.

**Related reading:**

**Bloomberg**: [Alibaba, JD and Meituan Surge After China Stimulus Announcement](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPZ2RzU2Fral84QWFlNkxpWGRLU0FHTnE5R2llV1U1Ukh5NjV4RlNlcmpvTjhXRFBlUmhYX2Y5Y0hvNTdEeDNqc2Q5X0RqTUVYY1IwSUtnNU5mcUdFRnQtMWhKeDBZQTRVY3M1aC1yR2FoWWVkQUlPSGVreUl6Y0U3UHpCb3dYdlBQNUdPNkxBWXdxTFVrR1hNM19TbVN2SGZzSUl5YzVNZWZzS09JT0tMTE1IUQ)

**New York Times**: [China Stocks Soar in Biggest Single-Week Jump Since 2008](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/business/asia-stocks-csi-300.html)

**Financial Times**: [Chinese Stocks Post Best Week Since 2008 After Stimulus Blitz](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE5maURnTjNZV3R6MGExU1JGZUpYWElMLVhRLTVSUFpMR2dSdXdDUGd2Y3M0ZWtjM25pbGhjVk1HWDZWcTBydG1tTnRZZ3hacEk3N21XazNuWjVfZWEtLXJGWlJtYkl2YldBcUhwSkhVblI)

### 02\. Decline in Freight Shows Recession Risks

The freight market, considered a leading indicator, shows signs of a recession as green shoots fade. This suggests caution for logistics and transportation stocks. As consumer demand wanes, related sectors might underperform, reflecting broader economic challenges.

**Related reading:**

**FreightWaves**: [Freight Market Green Shoots Fade Heading Into October](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-market-green-shoots-fade-heading-into-october)

**FreightWaves**: [White Paper: The State of Freight– September 2024](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/white-paper-the-state-of-freight-september-2024)

**FreightWaves**: [Check Call: Supply Chain Bottlenecks Are More Than Transportation’s Fault](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/check-call-supply-chain-bottlenecks-are-more-than-transportations-fault)

### 03\. Consumer Sentiment Remains Robust

Despite economic uncertainties, US consumer sentiment has reached a five-month high. This suggests resilient consumer spending and opportunities in consumer-focused stocks. Companies like Costco that align with discount-driven consumption could see strong holiday sales.

**Related reading:**

**Bloomberg**: [US Consumer Sentiment Rises to Five-Month High on Economy Views](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNMFBhaG80RVBYYTNjVEtoSWM3SWJxbmlIdEhfb0Z2QmJtcnFrRDdkem04bndQbWt4ZUlVV1ZINFZGdG42emQ5SUxvTFlodk5pdFU2Vl9IUmlXR3YtRlVhbTVhV0Rpb0dIMDJFQ2hpWm5fMVNPQjJiUnhKOV9Mb3BEMXFMOGpJVHNqVGlrbEJITmw3emhaWUFJYnVVMmgzRUVCUW5reTd1U09MbE43ZHlncUFOT3E)

**Bloomberg**: [Costco Sees Discount-Hungry Shoppers Driving Strong Holiday Sales](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxPTVkzaUlkY1hVdnd3eDVGaEtKNzJKVkdfY1RMd2NpejhURTVHUlNYZGpqaUxaY3N6eDNwRnJIUndWQ2N1b0ZVNDl4QzFFeVlZWGtwVEk0VDhNTVNSZVJYeWRWYmZmQXRBdTc0RXV5djlCTjNVTEFtZmM4MDVJWVFwRVpfNlNxMEp5YzFvY1JzdHdlUTNqNmdZZzc5SEp4RHRyM2pHWFNTT2w0cG1YRFlDQkxtaTVwcWctQkRVNWpaR2IxcFJT)

**Wall Street Journal**: [Diageo Backs Targets; Warns of Continued Challenges](https://www.wsj.com/articles/diageo-warns-of-continued-challenges-as-consumers-remain-cautious-0d51ce9a?mod=pls%5Fwhats%5Fnews%5Fus%5Fbusiness%5Ff)

### 04\. Private Equity Enters New Super Cycle

The private equity sector is anticipated to begin a 'super cycle,' driven by recent trends and market dynamics. This signifies increased opportunities in PE investments, and companies repositioning to capitalize on this could see notable growth and profitability.

**Related reading:**

**Institutional Investor**: [The Beginning of a Private Equity “Super Cycle”?](https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2dr5kqq5pzp399ki17i0w/innovation/the-beginning-of-a-private-equity-super-cycle)

**Bloomberg**: [Spins and Sales Help Put M&A Bankers Back on Track](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxQb29xNE92TXBQeUxvM3ZaQjNpTTdFeF9ib2VIY3lfdktWWjFwY1lFNVg5N2ZrZEs2U1BzY0h4RkstckZkOFdORFh2YkYzNzN5enh4ejdfQk1nUDNFUTJzcndJU1NNUTZDQ3hjVEtZRW5YOExadFFnZ05WMjhyWlVQRVZjcmZ6SlNaRzZyRFlpemFmUGJ3ZGJzYkdrYVJBam5CTzBOOVNuODB6cF9hVXdpZ003QkNEVDQzT29Z)

**Financial Times**: [Private Equity tests markets with a mammoth debt-fuelled dividend](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE1oTHVMRzh0Wng2ZWF5RmEtelFQSGNVeFNGandUQ1QtNjZtdlJjOVoxNF9kVVYtWEFwT0d0b2VFdVloYnBFd01rRjZXWkxJUVJCLWF4SFlqZzMzUFhvTGt5eGVrTlYxSldGQ0I4Zjljcnc)